Why North Carolina Was Going to Go Red

            When I logged onto Facebook Wednesday morning after the election, I saw two distinct types of status updates: those updates that read something along the lines of, “It got crazy yesterday @ the university when OBAMA WON..!!!” [1] and others that read, “thank you to all you who voted OBAMA congragulations you just contributed to the economic and complete collapse of this country” [2].  These two status updates accurately represent the two opinions that were found throughout my news feed: people who were violently for Obama, and people who were violently against Obama.  What’s so special about this?  Surely this was a common theme throughout the country.  Indeed, but the extremity of these two opinions is interesting because not only do they come from the same state, county, and city, but they are also from the same neighborhood.

            I come from Durham, North Carolina, a state with an interesting combination of “red” and “blue” counties: while the majority of the state is very conservative and Republican, most of the college cities and other highly urbanized areas registered as progressive and Democrat.  "It's a general rule," writes CNN contributor John Avlon about the swing county of Forsyth, North Carolina, "urban areas are voting Democrat" [3]. Though more counties are red than blue, the state’s population is split fairly evenly between rural and urban areas [4], thus making it the perfect swing state.  However, because of the factors affecting the state and because of the issues the election is focusing on, it was easy to predict North Carolina voting Republican, and therefore for Mitt Romney.  In order to put North Carolina’s results into perspective, I will also be looking at data for three other swing states who voted for Barack Obama: Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio.

            One of the major issues of the 2012 election was the question of which candidate would "save the economy:" create jobs, fix the housing market, and other matters.  In each of the four states to be looked at, the unemployment rate increased between 2008 and 2012, already giving an advantage to Romney since people would be disillusioned by the lack of positive change in Obama’s first term.  Currently, the unemployment rates are 5.9 for Virginia (+1.9 since 2008), 7.0 for Ohio (+1.5 since 2008), 8.0 for Colorado (+3.1 since 2008), and 9.6 for North Carolina (+3.3 since 2008) [5].  Because of its high unemployment rate, and how drastic the rate’s change was between 2008 and 2012, North Carolina would be, as a whole, more likely to vote for Romney.  Though Obama and other economists would say that the unemployment factor is a sign of a lagging recessions, the people of North Carolina who are not as well-versed in the theories of economics would view the high rate and high change as a sign of Obama’s failure, and would look for another to assist them.  What's more, there is very little positive change to be found in the housing market that people can see; when analyzing swing states, RealtyTrac only found improvements in three of eight states studied: Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada [6].  With lack of tangible change, and because of the need for instant gratification, many people will turn to Romney.

            Another important issue of the election was the question of gay rights, specifically gay marriage.  The two presidential candidates, by the time of the election, represented the two different sides of the debate: President Obama thinks “same sex couples should be able to get married” [7] while Mitt Romney believes the United States “should have a federal amendment in the constitution that defines marriage as a relationship between a man and woman” [8].  Earlier this year, during the primaries, North Carolina held a vote for Amendment 1, which would “ban any recognition of any “domestic legal union” other than a marriage between an opposite-sex couple” [9].  The amendment passed, the state voting 61% for it and 39% against it.  Because this proves that a sizable percentage of North Carolinians are against gay marriage, Romney already has an advantage among them.  However, the topic of gay rights and marriage wasn’t the biggest issue in the race, thus allowing for some leeway in the voting percentages.

 

            The question of gay rights and gay marriage also brings up another issue: the importance of religion to many North Carolinians, and their identity as part of a Christian nation. Since Obama first took office, his status as a Christian has often been called into question; many radicals have even gone so far as to call him a Muslim.  Mitt Romney, though not the typical Protestant Christian, represents familiar territory for many people of rural North Carolina, where racism and sexism are still all too present.  Though it was not even an issue up for debate by the candidates, many people vote for what is familiar and comfortable for them, once more giving Mitt Romney an advantage because of things that he cannot even control.

            In the end, North Carolina gave its fifteen electoral votes to Governor Mitt Romney after he won 50.6% of the popular vote.  This was, despite the data that was available at the time, very confusing: both Mecklenberg and Wake County went blue which, according to previous elections such as the 2008 election, is an indicator that the rest of the state would go blue.  It is true that knowing the outcome makes the explanation incredibly easy, but it is interesting to analyze what factors, political and otherwise, influence the vote in my state, and to find data to back it up.  A fair amount of the issues that drive people to vote for one candidate over another are constructivist causes, meaning that people vote based on their identity, such as voting for a Christian candidate because one views themself to be part of a Christian nation, or voting for someone who has the same beliefs about marriage.  It would be interesting to see if the data and opinions cited here can accurately predict future elections or future presidential approval rates.

Voting results from North Carolina by county; Raleigh, the capitol, is represented by a star and Durham, my hometown, is represented by another star.  Most of the blue counties have at least one large college or university in them [10].

 Sources

1.  Howell, DaQuan (Dream_Chaser_XD). “It got crazy yesterday @ the university when OBAMA WON..!!!”  7 November 2012, 7:25 a.m.  Tweet.

2.  Taylor, Chad.  “thank you to all you who voted OBAMA congragulations you just contributed to the economic and complete collapse of this country.” 7 November 2012, 9:20 a.m.  Facebook.

 

3.  Avlon, John. "Battleground Blog: How the Swing Counties Swung." CNN Political Ticker. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc., 8 Nov. 2012. Web. 09 Nov. 2012. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/08/battleground-blog-how-the-swing-counties-swung/.

4.  "Population in North Carolina." Population in North Carolina. The Rural Center, 2008. Web. 09 Nov. 2012. http://www.ncruralcenter.org/databank/trendpage_Population.php.

5.  "Unemployment Rates for States." U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 19 Oct. 2012. Web. 09 Nov. 2012. http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm.

6.  Miller, Andy B. "Special Series: Swing State Housing Analysis Gives Obama the Edge." DSNews.com. DSNews.com, 5 Nov. 2012. Web. 09 Nov. 2012. http://www.dsnews.com/articles/special-series-swing-state-housing-analysis-gives-obama-edge-2012-11-05.

7.  Interview by Robin Roberts and Barack Obama. ABC's Good Morning America. ABC, 9 May 2012. Web. 9 Nov. 2012. <www.abcnews.go.com>.

8.  Romney, Mitt. "Republican Presidential Debate." Interview by Fox News. FoxNewsInsider.com. Fox News, 11 Aug. 2011. Web. 9 Nov. 2012.

9.  Comer, Matt. "Anti-gay Marriage Amendment Filed in N.C. Senate." QNotes. Pride Publishing & Typesetting, Inc, 22 Feb. 2011. Web. 09 Nov. 2012. http://goqnotes.com/10093/anti-gay-marriage-amendment-filed-in-n-c-senate/

10.  "2012 Presidential Election: North Carolina." POLITICO. Politico LLC, 9 Nov. 2012. Web. 09 Nov. 2012. http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/.