The Realist Deterrence Policies of North Korea

The state of North Korea is nothing short of an enigma in the world of international relations. It acts almost purely based on its desire for survival, and thus also follows strongly realist policies, which I personally believe exemplify why realism does not work if the goal is to create a peaceful world.

            North Korea has existed as a separate state since 1945, having previously been part of the Japanese Empire, and before then part of the Korean Empire. It entered into war with its southern neighbor, the Republic of Korea, or South Korea, which was aided by the United States, while the Soviets and the Chinese aided North Korea. It did so as both nations laid claim to the entire Korean Peninsula. The war continued on until 1953, when an armistice line was established, which effectively ended the war, although officially the nations are still at war. Ever since this violent start, the two nations have had a volatile and unstable relationship. As South Korea is an ally of the United Nations and the West, North Korea has consequently also had a volatile relationship with the rest of the world.

            North Korea has made nothing easy for itself, as it follows the policy of “Songun”, or military first. (Hodge) This policy has involved terrorist attacks, attempts at stockpiling ballistic missiles, and somewhat more recently the creation of nuclear missile programs. In fact, North Korea has attacked South Koreans on multiple occasions, including the torpedoing of a South Korean Navy vessel as recently as 2010. (Chosun)

            And now, just days ago, North Korea announced that it would be launching a long range Unha-3 rocket anywhere between December 19 and 21. The Unha rocket series is in all technicality designed to launch a satellite into space. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists )However, many analysts believe that the rocket launching is a thinly disguised attempt to test long-range ballistic missile technologies. Not only is the test launch an act of military aggression, it also violates UN Security Council mandates which have been placed on North Korea, particularly Resolution 1718. This resolution, which was adopted unanimously by the Security Council in 2006, states that North Korea must “not conduct any further nuclear tests or launches of ballistic missiles.” (UN)

            The missile launch comes at a sensitive time in the international community, as South Korea is about to hold its 6^th Presidential elections. (Lee) Many believe that the missile launch is an attempt to place increased amounts of pressure on the South Koreans during their transition of power. In South Korea, presidents are only allowed one term, which lasts for five years. As this guarantees that somebody inexperienced in the role of president will be assuming power, it seems that the North Koreans believe this will allow them to more easily militarily intimidate the new president.

            From a realist perspective, North Korea wishes to upgrade militarily and attempt to stockpile ballistic missiles because the world system is anarchic and inherently violent, and military strength is the only way to protect a state (except in cases of mutual benefit). The North Koreans, who are known to be particularly aggressive, believe that if they build up their military, they will have greater international influence and thus be able to force the South Koreans to make certain concessions. Some of these desired concessions likely include food aid, as well as the easing of sanctions and military restrictions.

            A realist style of governance would also explain why North Korea has decided to ignore restrictions placed on it by the UN, which realists claim has no real effect on states. It has also violated the norms of a peaceful world system, namely through multiple terrorist attacks, the unprovoked torpedoing of the Cheonan, and the shelling of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island.

            I feel that as North Korea is clearly acting on realist principles, the only way the West will be able to open the nation up and create normal relations with it is to play the game the Koreans are playing. Sanctions are not working, as Kim-Jung Un clearly cares nothing for his people, just as Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-Il cared nothing for them. Since they do not affect him personally, he does not react to them. In fact, Kim Jong-Il cared so little, he allowed the sanctions to cripple his nation and create a massive famine in the 90’s, which killed anywhere between 1 and 3 million people. (Nolan)

            Because of this, the only logical approach to tackling the situation is creating a situation where becoming less militaristic and more diplomatic towards the West becomes attractive for North Korea and the West at the same time. However, as Kim Jong-Un seems to be the representative of his nation in all ways, the situation would need to be one where Kim Jong-Un personally benefits greatly. I would say we, that is to say the West, first needs to cease its hostile actions towards North Korea and remove sanctions in return for North Korea agreeing to abide by the UN’s restrictions. Then we must create a situation where North Korea does not feel threatened, which could potentially include removing American troops from South Korea as well as Japan, and downsizing the size of the West’s nuclear stockpiles. Once North Korea no longer feels threatened, and Kim Jong-Un feels that he is securely in power, North Korea will slowly open up and become more compliant with the rest of the world, as long as no violations of it’s sovereignty are made.

Works Cited

Hodge, H. "North Korea’s Military Strategy", Parameters, U.S. Army War College         Quarterly, 2003.

Chosun Ilbo. "How Did N. Korea Sink The Cheonan?". 21 May 2010. Retrieved           02       December 2012.

"Examining North Korea's satellite launch vehicle". Bulletin of the Atomic       Scientists. 21 March 2009. Retrieved 02 December 2012.

"Security Council imposes sanctions on DPR Korea after its claimed nuclear   test", United Nations, 02 December 2012

Lee, John H. "North Korea Says It Will Test Long-Range Rocket in December." New   York Times. New York Times, 1 Dec. 2012. Web. 2 Dec. 2012.

Noland, Marcus, Sherman Robinson and Tao Wang, Famine in North Korea:   Causes            and Cures, Institute for International Economics.